center of industrial power will touch Lake Erie, and possibly, but not probably, the center of population may move so far northward as to reach Lake Erie also. Their tendency will be to come together; but a considerable time will be required to bring them into near proximity. Will the movement of these centers be arrested before they reach Lake Michigan? I think no one expects it to stop eastward of that lake; few will claim that it will go far beyond it. Is it not, then, as certain as anything in the future can be, that the central power of the continent will move to, and become permanent on, the border of the great lakes? Around these pure waters will gather the densest population, and on their borders will grow up the best towns and cities. As the centers of population and wealth approach, and pass Cleveland, that city should swell to large size. Toledo will be still nearer the lines of their movement, and should be more favorably affected by them, as the aggregate power of the continent will, by that time, be greatly increased. As these lines move westward towards Chicago, the influence of their position will be divided between that city and Toledo, distributing benefits according to the degree of proximity.

If we had no foreign commerce, and all other circumstances were equal, the greatest cities would grow up along the line of the central industrial power, in its westward progress, each new city becoming greater than its predecessor, by the amount of power accumulated on the continent, for concentration from point to point of its progress. But as there are points from one resting-place to another, possessing greatly superior advantages for commerce over all others, and near enough the center line of industrial power to appropriate the commerce which it offers, to these points we must look for our future great cities. To become chief of these, there must be united in them the best facilities for transport, by water and by land. It is too plain, to need proof, that these positions are occupied by Cleveland, Toledo, and Chicago.

But we have a foreign cominerce beyond the continent of North America, by means of the Atlantic Ocean, bearing the proportion, we will allow, of one to twenty of the domestic commerce within the continent. This proportion will seem small, to persons who have not directed particular attention to the subject. It is, nevertheless, within the truth. The proof of this is difficult, only because we cannot get the figures that represent the numberless exchanges of equivalents among each other, in such a community as ours.

If we suppose ten of the twenty-nine millions of our North American community to earn, on an average, $1 25 per day, 312 days in the year, it will make an aggregate of nearly four thousand millions of dollars. If we divide the yearly profits of industry equally between capital and labor, the proportion of labor would be but $1 25 per day, for five millions of the twenty-nine millions. The average earnings of the twenty-nine millions, men, women, and children, to produce two thousand millions yearly, would be 22 cents a day, for 312 working days. This is rather under, than over the true amount; for it would furnish less than $70 each for yearly support, without allowing anything for accumulation.

Of the four thousand millions of yearly production, we cannot suppose that more than one thousand million is consumed by the producers, without being made the subject of exchange. This will leave three thousand millions as the subjects of commerce, internal and external. Of this, all

must be set down for internal commerce, inasmuch as most of that which enters the channel of external commerce, first passes through several hands, between the producer and exporter. Foreign commerce represents but one transaction. The export is sold, and the import is bought with the means the export furnishes. Not so with domestic commerce. Most of the products which are its subjects, are bought and sold many times, between the producer and ultimate consumer. Let us state a case:

I purchase a pair of boots from a boot dealer in Toledo. He has purchased them from a wholesale dealer in New York, who has bought them of the manufacturer in Newark. The manufacturer has bought the chief material of a leather dealer in New York, who has made the purchases which fill his large establishment from small dealers in hides. These have received their supply from butchers. The butchers have bought of the drovers, and the drovers of the farmers. If the boots purchased are of French manufacture, they have been the subject of one transaction represented in foreign trade, to wit:-their purchase in Paris by the American importer; whereas, they are the subject of several transactions in our domestic trade. The importer sells them to the jobber in New York; the jobber sells them to the Toledo dealer, who sells them to me.

It can scarcely admit of a doubt, that the domestic commerce of North America bears a proportion as large as twenty to one of its foreign commerce. Has internal commerce a tendency to concentrate in few points, like foreign commerce? Is its tendency to concentration less than that of foreign commerce? No difference, in this respect, can be perceived. All commerce develops that law of its nature, to the extent of its means. Forein commerce concentrates chiefly at those ports where it meets the greatest internal commerce. The domestic commerce being the great body, draws to it the smaller body of foreign commerce. New York, by her canals, her railroads, and her superior position for coastwise navigation, has drawn to herself most of our foreign commerce, because she has become the most convenient point for the concentration of our domestic trade. It is absurd to suppose she can always, or even for half a century, remain the best point for the concentration of domestic trade; and, as the foreign commerce will every year bear a less and less proportion to the domestic commerce, it can hardly be doubted, that before the end of one century from this time. the great center of commerce of all kinds, for North America, will be on a lake harbor. Supposing the center of population (now west of P ttsburg) shall average a yearly movement westward, for the next fifty years, of twenty miles; this would carry it one thousand miles northwestward from Pittsburg, and some five hundred or more miles beyond the central point of the natural resources of the country. It would pass Cleveland in five years, and Toledo in eleven years, reaching Chicago, or some point south of it, in less than twenty-five years. The geographical center of industrial power, is probably now in northeastern Pennsylvania, having but recently left the city of New York, where it partially now for a time remains. This center will move at a somewhat slower rate than the center of population. Supposing its movement to be fifteen miles a year, it will reach Cleveland in twenty years, Toledo in twenty-seven years, and Chicago in forty-five years. If ten years be the measure of the annual movement northwestward of the industrial central point of the continent, Cleveland would be reached in thirty years, Toledo in forty, and Chicago in sixty-three years. It is well known, that the rate

at which the center of population in the United States is now moving westward, is over fifteen miles a year, and that it is moving with an accelerated speed. It is obvious that the center of population, and the center of industrial power, now widely separated, by the nature of the country between New York and Cleveland, by the superiority in productive power of the old Northern and Middle States, over the new states of the Northwest; and still more, by the inferiority of industrial power of the plantation States, compared with the region lying north of them, will have a constant tendency to approximate, but can never become identical, so long as the inferior African race forms a large portion of the population of the great southern section of our Union. The constant tendency of the center of industrial power will be northward, as well as westward. This will be determined by the superiority of natural resources of the Northwest, over the Southwestern section, by the use of a far greater proportion of machine labor, in substitution for muscular labor, in the northern region, and also by the superior muscular and mental power, of the inhabitants of the colder climate. To these might be added the immense advantage of a vastly greater accumulated industrial power, in every branch of industry, and the tendency of the superabundent capital of the Old World to flow into the free States, and the country north of them.

In the view of the subject which has been taken here, it will be seen that the trade with the British Provinces north of us has been considered a portion of our domestic trade, and that Mexico and California have been left out of our calculation. These may be allowed to balance each other. But, together or apart, they will not be of sufficient importance to our continental commerce, to vary materially the results of its future for the next fifty years, as developed in this paper.

At their present rate of increase, the United States and the Canadas, fifty years from this time, will contain over one hundred and twenty millions of people. If we suppose it to be one hundred and five millions, and that these shall be distributed so that the Pacific States shall have ten millions, and the Atlantic border twenty-five milions, there will be left for the great interior plain, seventy millions. These seventy millions will have twenty times as much commercial intercourse with each other, as with all the world beside. It is obvious, then, that there must be built up in their midst the great city of the continent; and not only so, but that they will sustain several cities greater than those which can be sustained on the ocean border.

This is the era of great cities. London has nearly trebled in numbers and business since the commencement of the current century. The augmentation of her population in that time, has been a million and a half. This increase is equal to the whole population of New York and Philadelphia; and yet, it is probable that New York will be as populous as London, in about fifty years. A liberal, but not improbable estimate of the period of duplication of the numbers of these great cities would be, for London, thirty years, and for New York, fifteen years. At this rate, London will have four millions and seven hundred thousand, and New York three millions four hundred thousand, at the end of thirty years. At the end of the third duplication of New York-that is, in forty-five years, she will have become more populous than London, and number nearly seven millions. This is beyond belief, but it shows the probability of New York overtaking London in about fifty years.

A similar comparison of New York and the leading interior city-Chicago-will show a like result in favor of Chicago. The census returns show the average period of duplication to be fifteen years for New York, and less than four years for Chicago. Suppose that of New York for the future should be sixteen years, and that of Chicago eight years, and that New York now has, with her suburbs, nine hundred thousand, and Chicago one hundred thousand people. In three duplications, New York would contain six millions two hundred thousand, and Chicago, in six duplications, occupying the same length of time, would have six millions four hundred thousand. It is not asserted, as probable, that either city will be swelled to such an extraordinary size in forty-eight years-if ever; but it is more than probable that the leading interior city will be greater than New York fifty years from this time.

A few words as to the estimation in which such anticipations are held. The general mind is faithless of what goes much beyond its own experience. It refuses to receive, or it receives with distrust, conclusions, however strongly sustained by facts and fair deductions, which go much beyond its ordinary range of thought. It is especially sceptical and intollerant towards the avowal of opinions, however well founded, which are sanguine of great future changes. It does not comprehend them, and therefore refuses to believe; but it sometimes goes further, and, without examination, scornfully rejects. To seek for the truth, is the proper object of those who, from the past and present, undertake to say what will be in the future, and, when the truth is found, to express it with as little reference to what will be thought of it, as if putting forth the solution of a mathematical problem.

If it were asked, whose anticipations of what has been done to advance civilization, for the past fifty years, have come nearest the truth-those of the sanguine and hopeful, or those of the cautious and fearful-must it not be answered that, no one of the former class had been sanguine and hopeful enough to anticipate the full measure of human progress, since the opening of the present century? May it not be the most sanguine and hopeful only, who, in anticipation, can attain a due estimation of the measure of future change and improvement, in the grand march of society and civilization westward over our continent?

J. W. S.

JOURNAL OF MERCANTILE LAW.

CHARTER PARTY-CUSTOM-ARBITRATION.

United States Circuit Court, (September, 1856.) Before Nelson, Chief Justice. Augustus Belmont vs. William Tyson.-In error.

NELSON, C. J. One of the principal questions arising in this case is, whether or not, according to the true interpretation of the charter party, the charterer was bound to furnish the cargo for the vessel outside the west pass into the harbor of Apalachicola?

The judge charged that, if the jury found that the vessel was as deep as it was prudent to load her inside the pass, and that the master went to a proper place outside, in order to complete the lading, the parties must be presumed to have understood the vessel was to go outside to finish loading, as upon the contract he was to have a full cargo. The two entrances into the harbor are called the east

and west passes. The east will enable vessels to enter drawing some sixteen feet water, the west about thirteen. The ship in this case entered the east pass, anchored, and took in lumber until she drew the sixteen feet, and then passed out and anchored at the mouth of the west pass to complete the cargo. When fully laden she drew from eighteen to nineteen feet water.

It is insisted, on the part of the charterer, that he was not bound to furnish cargo beyond the quantity the vessel could receive within the passage, and get safely out to sea; whereas, the owner claims that he was entitled to have a full cargo, and that the charterer was bound to furnish the remainder necessary to complete it outside, and this upon the principle that the charterer is presumed to have known the size and character of the ship, and the state of the harbor at the place of loading; and that a full cargo could not be obtained on board unless part of it should be taken in outside the passes.

There is some evidence in the case that this is the custom in the instance of large ships receiving cargo at this port. The evidence, however, was slight, and the case in the court below was not put upon that ground. The voyage was from Apalachicola to Liverpool, with a cargo of lumber particularly specified. The whole ship was chartered, the freight at eighty shillings sterling per load. The owner, therefore, was deeply interested in having a full cargo; and, if the charterer is chargeable with a knowledge of the tonnage and draft of water of the ship, and the state of the harbor, as I am inclined to think he is, then, as he stipulated to supply a full cargo, it seems to me the ruling of the court below was right and agreeably to the fair interest and meaning of the charter party. The full cargo, in point of fact, was delivered outside the west pass; that is, the cargo was completed at that place. It is claimed, however, on the part of the shippers, that this was upon condition of waiving any claim for demurrage, which is denied by the master

The next material question in the case is, whether or not an arbitration between the consignees of the ship and those of the cargo at Liverpool, in respect to the measurement of the lumber, is binding upon the owners. The consignees of the cargo claimed that, according to the custom of that port, the freight was to be paid per load, solid measure—that is, defective pieces, on account of splits, sap, and bark, were not to be counted, which made a difference in the freight in this case of over three thousand dollars. There was a deduction of one hundred and fifty loads in consequence of these defects. A dispute arose as to the measurement, whether in should be according to the rule at Apalachicola or Liverpool, and the consignees of the ship and of the cargo referred the question as above stated. The arbitrators decided in favor of the usage at Liverpool, and that the measurement must be as upon the case of a sale, between vendor and vendee. The reasonableness of this usage, if it exists, is not very apparent. Certainly the master, or owner in this case, had no right to dictate as to the quality of the lumber put on board. The cargo was selected and delivered at the ship's tackle by the agent of the charterer. Even if such a custom exists at Liverpool, as it respects the consignee of the cargo, I doubt if it can be regarded as a defense in a suit against the charterer for the freight. I can understand his contract in no other way than as stipulating to pay the eighty shillings sterling for every load of lumber of such quality as he has delivered on board. This, I think, is the clear sense of it. According to the usage, as claimed at Liverpool, if the whole cargo which the shipper has seen fit to ship should there be deemed not merchantable, no freight would be due or collectable at all.

The question here, however, is as to the effect of the arbitration. The court below held that it could not bind the charterer, and as the award must be mutual, it did not bind the owner.

There are some minor points raised in the case, but, if the ruling of the court can be maintained upon the two questions that I have noticed, I think the case free from difficulty. These questions are somewhat embarrassing, but for the reasons stated, as at present advised, I am inclined to concur in the disposition of the case by the court below, and to affirm the judgment.