upon the situation, not only will the question of Tripoli be disposed of, but a new status will be given to the Turkish provinces west of Constantinople. In a recent work entitled The Turco-Italian War and Its Problem,* Sir Thomas Barclay points out that Italy's real case was not the existence of the grievances referred to in the ultimatum but motives of a deeper character based upon a long-standing sentiment that Tripoli naturally belonged to Italy against all the world except Turkey, -a sentiment which has found expression in the treatment of Tripoli by Italy as practically an Italian dependency. While insisting strongly upon the maintenance of the sanctity of treaties and of good faith between nations, the author thinks that now that the offense has been committed the only course is for the offender to make amends by payment of an indemnity. Following out this idea the author proposes a draft recommendation to be offered to the parties by England as mediator. The document is of such an interesting character that it is reproduced below: Whereas, under Art. 3, of the Hague Convention for the pacific settlement of international disputes, 1899-1907, Powers strangers to the dispute have the right to offer their good offices or mediation, even during the course of hostilities; and, under Art. 6, good offices and mediation, either at the request of the parties at variance, or on the initiative of Powers strangers to the dispute, have exclusively the character of advice, and never have binding force; and, under Art. 7, if mediation occurs after the commencement of hostilities, it causes no interruption to the military operations in progress, unless there be an agreement to the contrary; Whereas Italy and Turkey are unhappily at war, and an Italian army is in occupation of the coast of Tripolitana and Cyrenaica, and Turkey is faced with the alternative of ceding the said provinces, which, owing to Italy's command of the sea, she is unable to defend with any hope of ultimate success or of continuing the war indefinitely with all its attendant miseries and cruelties to a brave and loyal population; Whereas the Parties have agreed to the mediation of Great Britain and have further agreed to an armistice of three weeks for the purpose of enabling the British Government to formulate suggestions of settlement; The British Government, having fully considered the cases of the contending Parties, makes the following recommendations: 1. Italy shall cancel her decree of annexation of the said provinces and shall undertake to indemnify Turkey for any consequences thereof; 2. She shall also undertake to indemnify Turkey for all damage, direct or indirect, suffered by the Ottoman Government or Ottoman subjects in connexion with the hostilities she has carried on in Tripolitana, Cyrenaica and elsewhere. *The book will be reviewed in a later issue of the JOURNAL. 3. She shall agree, in case the other Powers shall so agree, to release Turkey from the obligations imposed on her by the Capitulations; 4. The amount of the indemnity payable to Turkey, in respect of the above two sources of loss, shall be submitted for assessment to the International Court of Arbitration at the Hague, such amount not to be less than (say) T. 5,000,000; 5. In consideration of the above undertakings and those set out below, Turkey shall agree to cede Tripolitana and Cyrenaica to Italy; 6. Italy shall grant in perpetuity to the Mussulman inhabitants of the ceded provinces religious freedom and the right to the full external observance of their religious ceremonies; enjoyment of the same civil and political rights as may be possessed by their fellow-inhabitants belonging to other religions; the right to use the name of H. I. M. the Sultan, as Khalif, in public prayers; recognition of Mussulman pious foundations (vakoufs); and untrammelled liberty of communication by Mussulmans with their religious heads at Constantinople, etc., etc. RECENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA Events in China have moved with such bewildering rapidity that a brief review of the principal features may be helpful. The immediate or precipitate cause of the recent disturbances was the adoption by the Imperial Chinese Government in the summer of 1911 of the policy of the nationalization or state ownership of railways; but among the underlying primary causes may be noted (1) Chinese-Manchu mutual antagonism; (2) dissatisfaction with Manchu inefficiency and misrule as exemplified in the weakness and corruption of the Prince Regent and many of his advisers; (3) the inflaming of the Chinese mind by often exaggerated statements in the vernacular press describing the baneful political conditions; (4) the activities of secret societies, and of returned students from Japan, the United States and Europe; and (5) the unrest resulting from successive famines during recent years in the Yangtze Valley, the numerous financial panics, and the plague in the winter of 1910-1911 in Manchuria. In a word, the revolution was essentially anti-dynastic. On October 10th last five natives charged with being revolutionists were arrested in the Russian concession at Hankow, in the native section of which city a few hours later they were executed. This act resulted during the night in the mutiny of several hundred troops in Wuchang, opposite Hankow, who burned their barracks. The following day all the new army force at Wuchang, numbering 50,000 men, joined the revolutionists. Then followed in rapid succession the seizure of that city, the burning of the Viceroy's yamen, that official barely making good his escape on a Chinese gunboat lying in the harbor, and the seizure of the arsenal as well as the provincial treasury and mint. A day later the revolutionists crossed the Yangtze River and captured the city of Hanyang with its arsenal and the great iron and steel works. The native city of Hankow quickly fell into the hands of the revolutionists. There was an uprising on October 20th in Nanking, the ancient Chinese capital. Three weeks later Canton declared its independence of the Manchus, and revolutionists, in many instances acting quite independently of any central authority, captured Foochow, Amoy, Hangchow, Soochow, and a long list of other important cities, many of them being the capitals of the central and northern provinces; they also acquired complete control in Shanghai, which thereupon became the headquarters of the insurrection. At the same time the revolutionary movement met with reverses at Nanking. The Manchu general stationed there with about 10,000 troops refused to accede to the revolutionists' demands; whereupon the latter made an attack but were compelled to retire because of lack of ammunition. The next day the Manchu soldiers descended from the forts and overran the city, massacreing thousands of the innocent inhabitants, men, women, and children, all who were suspected of progressive tendencies, - while the revolutionary forces, 20,000 in number, waiting the arrival of ammunition from Shanghai, looked on helplessly. - Meanwhile the revolutionists, or the republicans, as they styled themselves, had established a cabinet form of government, with Wu Ting-fang, formerly Chinese Minister to the United States, as Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Provisional Government of China. About this time also Yuan Shih Kai, former grand councillor and commander-in-chief of the army and navy, was summoned by edict to Peking to accept the premiership and save the dynasty. After a long delay, Yuan accepted the post, proceeded to form, as a concession to the revolutionists, the first purely Chinese cabinet the Empire ever had, and began negotiations with them looking toward the cessation of hostilities and the recognition of a liberal constitutional form of government, with the Manchu dynasty nominally at its head. Late in November the Imperial troops after severe fighting retook the city of Hanyang from the revolutionists, the latter retreating in confusion. This victory, however, was speedily followed by a new and determined revolutionary attack upon Nanking which resulted in its capture. The next day it was announced that Urga, the capital of Mongolia, had declared its independence and banished the Chinese officials. The effect of these reverses and the unsuccessful attempts of Yuan Shih Kai to placate the revolutionists, led to the resignation of Prince Chun, as regent, December 7, in the hope of saving the throne to his son, the young Emperor, Hsuan Tung. Prince Chun was succeeded by a Manchu and a Chinese as joint guardians of the throne. By this time the insurrection had acquired wide dimensions. All of the eighteen provinces, excepting portions of Chihli, Honan, and Shantung, had revolted, all forts, arsenals, and mints located therein having been seized. The entire imperialist fleet of some eighteen vessels, including four cruisers, had gone over to the revolutionary party; less than one-third of the army remained loyal, the other corps either joining the revolutionists or else declining to obey instructions from Peking. The army corps stationed at Lanchow, a city in Chihli Province along the Peking-Shanhaikwan Railway, had made twelve demands of the Peking Government. These were presented through the national assembly by whom they were approved, the assembly and the army working in harmony. Edicts, in response to these demands contained apologies for past mistakes, amnesty to political exiles, grant of power to the assembly to frame a constitution, and promise of a new and responsible cabinet in which no member of the imperial family should hold office. Other and later edicts granted an immediate parliament; gave assurance that amendments to the constitution must originate in parliament; that the army and navy, though subject to the control of the Emperor, could not be used in domestic troubles except under regulations to be adopted by parliament; that the premier be elected by parliament, he to appoint ministers of state; and that parliament approve the budget and all treaties. Thus the Manchus were divested of all powers, only a shadow of their former absolute authority remaining. Yuan Shih Kai, who had been made premier, entrusted with the reconstruction of the cabinet and given the supreme command of the army and navy, apparently lacked the full confidence of either party. other hand there were serious dissensions among the revolutionists. Among their organizations there was little cohesion or common leadership, though there did exist a certain unity of purpose; there were also the traditional jealousies of the provinces to be reconciled. The revolutionists south of the Yangtze were for a republic with Sun Yat Sen as president, while those north of the river at first favored a limited monarchy with a Manchu on the throne, merely as a figurehead, but later stood out for a republic, with Yuan as its head. Thus both parties had come to insist upon the removal of the Manchu imperial family root and branch and the establishment of a republic. Only the Manchus, who number perhaps less than 5,000,000, together with a few extreme conservatives in the factions of the revolutionists, continued to talk of a constitutional monarchy with the retention of the Emperor on the throne. During the second week of December the differences separating the various parties seemed to admit of the possibility of immediate adjustment. On December 18, following the establishment of an armistice, representatives of the imperial government and the revolutionists went into conference at Shanghai. Tong Shao-yi, appointed commissioner on the part of the premier, headed the imperial, and Wu Ting-fang the revolutionary conferees. Wu, on behalf of his associates, presented four proposals; the abolition of the Manchu dynasty, the establishment of a republican form of government, the pensioning of the imperial family, and generous treatment of all Manchus. On December 20, the American, British, French, German, Russian, and Japanese representatives at Peking delivered informally and unofficially through the consuls-general at Shanghai an identic note to Tong Shao-yi and Wu Ting-fang. This note, besides declaring adherence to the attitude of strict neutrality, called the attention of both parties to the desirability of arriving at an early understanding to end the conflict. This was the first concrete instance of concerted action by the six leading Powers during the disturbances in China, though steps looking toward such common action had been taken previously. The negotiations of the peace commissioners continued for weeks, during which time a series of armistices was arranged. While these armistices were not always strictly observed the negotiations were never entirely broken off. The discussions of the conference turned upon the question of choosing between a republic and a limited monarchy as the form of government, thus showing further that the first aim of the revolutionists had been the overthrow of the Manchu dynasty. In the meantime, on December 28, Sun Yat Sen was unanimously elected, by the Nanking assembly, provisional president of the Republic of China, and was inaugurated as such on New Year's Day at that city. Finally, the throne, seeing that China proper was almost entirely in favor of a republic, and that the outlying dependencies of Tibet, Turkestan, Mongolia, and Manchuria were breaking away, decided it was best to yield to the popular demand and abdicate from power. The |