sages. 60 The article intimates further that this political agreement lead to a bilateral naval disarmament agreement. may 2. The Jiji this morning published a short article alleging that Hirota is working toward a tripartite agreement between the United States, Great Britain and Japan whereby each country will undertake the maintenance of peace in its particular sphere; United States in the Americas, Great Britain in Europe and Japan in the Far East, the tripartite agreement to replace the League of Nations as world peace machinery. 3. The Embassy has no knowledge of any negotiations tending to ends outlined in the two articles but as both articles appeared today it is believed possible that they may in fact be trial balloons put out by the Foreign Office. GREW 711.94/1057a: Telegram The Secretary of State to the Ambassador in Japan (Grew) WASHINGTON, February 1, 1936-1 p.m. 16. For your information. Press reports indicate that Japanese press has widely carried stories affirming comprehensive political negotiations between Grew and Hirota and between Hull and Saito. Interrogated by press correspondents this morning, the Secretary of State said there were no new developments in relations between the United States and countries of the Far East; and Departmental officers have informally explained to correspondents that there have been held numerous conferences with regard to particular questions of trade but no conferences on political matters have been held or been suggested. HULL 761.9315 Manchuria/35: Telegram The Secretary of State to the Ambassador in Japan (Grew) WASHINGTON, February 3, 1936-5 p. m. 17. Information received by the Department indicates that in some Soviet circles there is an uneasy feeling that the outbreak of a conflict between Japan and the Soviet Union in the spring or summer of this year is within the realm of possibility. HULL 0 February 21 and March 3, 1934, Foreign Relations, Japan, 1931-1941, vol. I, pp. 127-129. 793.94/7702: Telegram The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State PEIPING, February 4, 1936-noon. [Received February 4-7:30 a. m."] 44. Embassy's 33, January 23, 5 p. m. 1. Two councilors of Sung Che Yuan state in conversation that the Japanese military are continuing to press Sung hard for a declaration of complete autonomy and that Sung is still loathe to do so. One of the informants states that Sung definitely will not comply and that this will result in the instigation of disturbances by the Japanese for the purpose of effecting a way out of the seeming deadlock. 2. The Consul at Tsinanfu has sent the following telegram: "February 3, 11 a. m. Han Fu Chu, said to be inspecting troops at Liaochenghan, and Sung Che Yuan, said to be sweeping tombs at Loling, are reliably reported to have conferred in Tehchow February 1st. Speculation rife in informed circles whether the purpose of the conference was to arrange closer cooperation in resistance to or acceptance of Japanese demands." 3. Details of conversations between Japanese and Yin Ju Keng and Sung's men and between Japanese and Shansi and Shantung officials are lacking. It is understood that Doihara intends to remain in Hopei for some time. The Chief of Staff of the Japanese North China Garrison went yesterday to Yin's so-called capital. Conversations at Tokyo of Japanese military, including Major General Isogai, Japanese Military Attaché, and Lieutenant Colonel Ikeda, staff officer of the North China Garrison, are regarded as having significance in connection with the future course of the Japanese military in North China. 4. Embassy's 40, January 30, 4 p. m., paragraph 1. It is learned from local official source that the post office has received a request from the Hopei-Chahar Political Council for a complete accounting of all receipts and expenditures as from January 1st. The post office has requested instructions from Nanking. By mail to Tokyo. 61 Telegram in two sections. 919456-54 JOHNSON 761.9315 Manchuria/36: Telegram The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State TOKYO, February 4, 1936-5 p. m. [Received February 4-1: 15 p. m.] 24. Department's 17, February 3, 5 p. m. 1. Siberian-Mongolian border situation. (a) Incidents relating to the Siberian and Mongolian borders are handled by the Kwantung army headquarters in Hsinking with little reference to Tokyo. Consequently War Office here has apparently little information as to current situation. The Military Attaché of the Embassy 62 reports that the War Office continues to refer to the border incidents as "annoying." (b) Nippon Dempo in a despatch from Hsinking dated February 2 reports that the Kwantung army has reversed its reported previous decision to take "strong measures" and will now do nothing to aggravate the border situation "for fear that entire Far Eastern situation might take a severe turn for the worse". A Domei report from Moscow dated February 3 states that the Red Army would assist an impartial commission of inquiry into reported mutiny Manchukuo troops near Mishan January 29 during a skirmish between JapanManchukuo and Soviet mutineer forces. (c) The Soviet Ambassador and General Rink, the Military Attaché, continue to express confidence that owing to the strength of Soviet defenses the Japanese will not attack. The Soviet Military Attaché told Colonel Crane on January 28 that if the Japanese bring too much pressure to bear against the Outer Mongolians the Soviet Government will aid them by technical means. General Rink has just returned from the U.S.S.R. and his confident attitude contrasts strongly with his evident anxiety of a year and more ago. (d) With regard to the present border situation, although the recent incidents have renewed anxiety, the Embassy foresees no serious trouble in the near future. This does not eliminate possibility of a grave incident rendering it impossible to restrain the opposing armies. (See despatch 1648, January 23 due Washington February 8). 2. Possibility of war this spring or summer. (a) Foreign observers consider recent Japanese trial balloon (Embassy's telegram No. 2163) is an effort to counterbalance LitvinovEden and Litvinov-Flandin 65 conversations. They believe the Foreign Office to be apprehensive of negotiations which may strengthen the U.S.S.R. in Europe. 62 Lt. Col. William C. Crane. 63 Dated February 1, 11 a.m., p. 35. 64 British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. 65 French Minister without Portfolio and former Premier. (b) The Soviet willingness to resist by force Japanese-Manchukuo violations of Mongolian and Siberian borders has demonstrated to the Kwantung army that immediate objectives of revising boundaries and opening Outer Mongolia can only be reached by war. The question has therefore arisen whether these immediate objectives, plus fundamental desire to eliminate Russia from East Asia, will lead Japanese leaders to favor coming spring or summer as most favorable opportunity to strike. It is generally assumed here that the Soviets will not themselves attack. Those who hold that Japan will attack this year claim that increasing strength of Soviet defenses make it a case of "now or never". The majority, however, feels that the present Government in Japan will not deliberately attack Russia until or unless Russia is also involved in war on her western front. Consequently, the Japanese decision will await developments in Europe. (c) In considering the possibility of war in the spring or summer of this year, it appears likely that the influences surrounding the throne, Hirota, the majority of the business interests and probably the General Staff in Tokyo will be opposed to war under present circumstances. Should hostilities break out in Europe it is difficult at this stage to foretell in what manner the resulting cleavage of opinion among Japanese leaders for and against a war with Russia would be resolved. To Peiping by mail. GREW 793.94/7782 The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State No. 81 NANKING, February 4, 1936. [Received March 9.] SIR: I have the honor to enclose herewith copies of two despatches 66 addressed to the American Ambassador at Peiping, both dated February 3, 1936, and both reporting evidence that there is current in Chinese educational and political circles a belief that hostilities between China and Japan will commence within the next two or three months, and that the Chinese public is paying close attention to the prolonged resistance offered by the Ethiopian forces to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia," on the ground that this is an indication that China would be able to oppose effective military resistance to Japan. I have the honor to add that in a further conversation held by me yesterday with a Chinese official, Dr. Y. T. Tsur, Administrative Vice Minister of Industries, evidence was again given that the idea of the inevitability of hostilities between China and Japan is prevalent and that the conflict in Ethiopia is receiving close attention. Dr. Tsur said he supposed that the "baptism of fire" through which China had been passing must be prolonged to include hostilities with Japan and that "perhaps" China would emerge from the ordeal improved and strengthened. He asked whether I thought that the Ethiopians would be able to continue the struggle against the Italian forces much longer. I called attention to the difference between the reports of these hostilities emanating from Italian and Ethiopian sources, respectively, and remarked that if one were to believe the Italian reports, the Italian forces in Ethiopia had met with practically no difficulty from the opposition of the Ethiopian troops, but only from climatic conditions and the terrain. My acquaintance with Dr. Tsur began some twenty years ago when he was President of Tsinghua College. So far as I am aware he is still a member of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the Promotion of Education and Culture, which handles the American remitted Boxer Indemnity, and has recently been President of Yenching University in Peiping, an American missionary institution. He was appointed to his present post in the Ministry of Industries in December, 1935, and appears to have come at the solicitation of General Chiang Kai-shek. He told me that he had been invited by General Chiang to luncheon on February 1 and he spoke to me in an admiring tone of the high qualities of General Chiang as a national leader. In view of the fact that Dr. Tsur is new to the political atmosphere of Nanking, I thought it advisable not to endeavor to extract much concrete information from him at this first interview. Respectfully yours, 761.94/876 For the Ambassador: Memorandum by the Under Secretary of State (Phillips) [WASHINGTON,] February 7, 1936. The Soviet Ambassador 68 having just returned from Russia called upon me this morning. In reply to my inquiry as to whether he had any new impressions about the situation in the Far East and in Europe, he said something along the following lines. |