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first shots were fired at Port Arthur and Chemulpo that have not been given publicity.

And besides these many evidences of pro-Russian sympathy given by William II personally, official Germany has put Russia under obligations for the space of a twelvemonth past and over by keeping strict watch over Russian conspirators - from the downright Nihilist and dynamiter to the mild and reasonable reformer - who had sought refuge on German soil. Many of these were delivered up to the Russian authorities; others were simply expelled; others again were tried and convicted before German courts. The German liberal press and German liberal delegates in the Reichstag have condemned these services done pour les beaux yeux of the Czar and official Russia; and far be it from me to justify these methods. I only mention them to show the reasons operating in bringing about the present close friendship between the Governments and rulers of the two countries, and to state that even these somewhat reprehensible ones have borne their share in the result. There can be no possible doubt that large numbers of the German people, perhaps the majority, sympathize with Japan in the present struggle and look askance at the closer relations with a nation and Government scarcely civilized in the fuller meaning of that term. But as a skilful manoeuvre to accomplish a given result, and a result perhaps bearing better fruit in days to come, the above deserved, nevertheless, some mention.

Now it is hardly worth while pointing out that this new rapprochement between Russia and Germany has been aided by other circumstances than those hitherto enumerated. Russia's old enemy, England, suddenly become the friend of France, Russia's ally! England, the friend of France, also the ally of Japan, Russia's foe! Russian statesmen with food for reflection. In fact, it this rather odd combination.

This furnished sobered Russia,

For years a large part of the French press has been preaching about the "uselessness," the "folly," of the alliance with Russia. Out of their savings, the French people have loaned to Russia during the past ten years a matter of $1,800,000,000. Many Frenchmen think this is all the "advantage" their country has had from the political connection with Russia. These voices are constantly increasing in volume and number. Some of the weightiest publications in France, as, for instance, the "Revue des Deux Mondes," are saying outright that France can now do without Russia much better than Russia can do without France.

It seems that the days of the Dual Alliance are numbered, just as are those of the Triple Alliance, and this for similar reasons, namely,

because the political conditions which created the Dual Alliance no longer exist. Indeed, this seems to be true. The conditions which created both alliances having disappeared, they also must disappear. If an alliance between Italy and her late tyrannical oppressor, Austria - Austria, which sent Italy's best sons to the gallows or dungeon for several generations; Austria, whose name is still execrated in Milan and Venice seems unnatural, how much more unnatural appears the political union between the first daughter of the Revolution, the French nation of to-day, and the Russian autocracy, the representative of the hoary, bigoted Middle Ages!

Besides, both Triple and Dual Alliance were the outgrowth of purely Old World, of European, conditions, such as they existed before 1894, before the appearance in the arena of the two new World Powers, the United States and Japan. The advent of the two latter necessarily must lead to a regrouping of the Powers, and in the midst of the attempt to effect such a readjustment we are at present. Probably the end of the Russo-Japanese war will see the fruition of these labors. But even now it is easy to predict that Germany will be found on the side of Russia, definitely ranged there, not so much as a matter of choice as of political and economic expediency. There are many loyal sons of Germany who deplore this, many who would much rather see their native country pulling in the same harness with the more progressive and advanced nations. Close political friendship with Russia will mean for the German people political retrogression, though it may mean also greater material prosperity. And it may also mean the permanent estrangement of the two kindred races, the Teutonic and the Anglo-Saxon-a possibility almost as much to be deplored for the sake of one as the other. But it is hard to see what else Germany can do but contract a close political friendship with Russia - what else, that is, when her oldtime allies are failing her, and when the present political constellation seems to make it absolutely incumbent on her to offset England's hostility by an active alliance with the only other World Power available. WOLF VON SCHIERBRAND.

THE FORUM.

VOL. XXXVI, NO. 4.

APRIL-JUNE, 1905.

NEW YORK:

THE FORUM PUBLISHING COMPANY.

COPYRIGHT, 1904,

BY THE FORUM PUBLISHING COMPANY.

PRESS OF

THE PUBLISHERS' PRINTING COMPANY

32, 84 LAFAYETTE PLACE

NEW YORK

The Forum

APRIL, 1905.

AMERICAN POLITICS.

THE inauguration is over. Theodore Roosevelt, of New York, is President of the United States, not by accident, but by virtue of the suffrages of the American people. He has entered the White House upon a wave of popularity unequalled since the days of Abraham Lincoln. His endearment to the people was strikingly manifested during the inaugural ceremonies, when it was plainly evident that the people came to see Theodore Roosevelt and not the President of the United States. The dominating individuality of the man was the magnet which attracted thousands. Never in recent years has an inauguration been so largely personal. With a remarkable following of the common people behind him, President Roosevelt stands upon the threshold of his new term. He is untrammelled by pledges, unhampered by ambition, and full of energy, determination, and courage.

It is quite likely that the inauguration of President Roosevelt is the last which will be conducted under local auspices. In the early history of our nation, the people of the District of Columbia honored the President on inauguration day in unpretentious fashion. They escorted him. to the Capitol, where they witnessed the solemn administration of the oath of office, and then they thronged the White House personally to tender their congratulations. As the country developed and travel was relieved of its former hardships, the inauguration grew into an event of national moment, and therefore more complex in its details. It became necessary for the citizens of the District of Columbia to perfect

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