Few by an economy that is enforced by want of means, but in much greater degree growing out of a universal spirit of economy pervading all classes and causing a reduction of consumption on the part of vast numbers of persons who are not forced thereto, but who imagine that there will presently come a time when they can do better than to buy now. I doubt if there are ten men amongst us all here present who are not wearing some old garments which in ordinary times we should have discarded and which we could perfectly well afford to discard now. persons realize the immense effect of such a spirit of saving or not buying at the usual season. We have in Massachusetts about 1,650,000 people, and the value of all the capital of Massachusetts-that is to say, the value of all the mills, railroads, works, dwellings, warehouses, furniture, and of all the goods, wares, merchandise and stock in process in the State (of course omitting the land, which man did not make)-does not exceed $600 per head, about $1,000,000,000 in all. On the other hand, our annual product is $300 a head. We have accumulated two years' product in a century, and that is all. Now, suppose a spirit of economy or want of confidence in the future suddenly pervades the whole community,-one man puts off repairs on his house a year, another man wears his old coat another season, one woman mends her old clothes who would have bought new, and another patches her old sheets,-suppose, in short, to use our own terms, we run down the general stock in our mills, you can easily see what a cessation in the general demand there will be, and what an accumulation of supply. But there is a cheerful side; if our whole stock of fixed and quick capital is only equal to two years' product, we cannot live upon it long, and the longer we wear our old clothes now, the more new clothes must we have presently. Now, gentlemen, what is our present production and supply of cotton goods? How does it compare with previous years when we were prosperous? How long shall we be compelled to find an export market for our surplus, even at cost, in order to keep our spindles going? I began to compare population and spindles about the year 1855, under the tuition of our good old friend, whom we never cease to mourn, David Whitman. I have not the exact data, as I did not then keep all my figures as I now do, but the product was substantially thirty-three yards per head, including the proportion exported. I continued from year to year to keep the run of the figures, and in 1860 the United States census figures were submitted to me for correction by Mr. Kennedy, the superintendent, and as finally published they were substantially correct in all material points. The exception is that I think the relative proportion of printing-cloths was somewhat understated, but not much. I omit The following figures will give you true measures. all question of value, because when our money itself is a lie, all comparisons based upon its use will be lies. I use only the measures of pounds and yards, and omit the measure of dollars until we have true dollars to measure with. I use an estimate of our present population based on the census of about one-fourth of the States, taken by States in 1875, and I have taken a minimum. Our population was probably over 44,000,000 in 1875; such is the estimate of experts, but as the figures only give 43,500,000, I have taken that estimate. Immigration is less than during a portion of the last decade, but the immigrants who do come have relatively more means, and the large sales of land on all the land-grant railroads indicate a rapid settlement of new land that must ultimately help us greatly. The farmer must of necessity draw around him the wheelwright, the blacksmith, and other artisans of like kinds, and these are our principal customers. The importance of great factories as centres of consumption as well as of production is much overrated. All the cotton and woollen factories, together with all the iron mines and rolling-mills in the United States, employ less than one per cent. of our population; our great market, both for the farmer and the cottonspinner, is found among farmers, mechanics, railroad employés, laborers, and small tradesmen. To-day the farming class is the most prosperous in the country, and their welfare must, sooner or later, assure that of all who depend upon them. Even the South is richer than ever before, but its accumulation is more widely diffused, and is in large part invisible because privately hoarded; hence it attracts less attention. In my tables, the points that may be considered established and certain, are First. Consumption of cotton in 1860 and 1875. Second. Number of spindles in 1860 and 1875. Third. Products of cloth in yards in 1860 and 1875. Fourth. Population, export, and per capita consumption of 1860. The points that are substantially, but not absolutely, sure, are Fifth. Population in 18 75 and 1876. Sixth. Per capita production of cloth. The estimates which are tolerably sure, are Seventh. Export of 1875. Eighth. The average number of yarn spun, and the yards to the pound of the cloth made. The estimate which is open to some question, but not much, is Ninth. The relative proportion of printing-cloths in 1860. The deduction which is proved absolutely, and cannot be contested, is Tenth. That the production of cotton fabrics in 1876, other than printing-cloths, consisting of sheeting, shirting, drills, and colored goods, is no more, probably less, than it was in 1859 and 1860, in proportion to the population of the United States. Hence I claim that my theory stands proved, that the difficulty of to-day is not over-production, but restricted consumption; and further, I hold that, although it would be very unsafe to base any specific operations in goods upon these statistics, yet it is also true that within a reasonable time the demand will be in advance of the supply, and there will be a stern chase between the spindles and the population,-population leading. The ratio of spindles to population is now twenty-two per hundred. I think I am safe in saying that if we can secure an export of the product of three out of each twenty-two spindles, every mill in the country that is in decent order and condition will be profitably employed, and thereafter we shall absolutely need from 220,000 to 250,000 spindles per year to keep up our ratio. Gentlemen, these are the facts that will control our industry next year. The popular impression is very different, and it is the popular impression of to-day that makes the market of today. It might be safe to buy or build a mill on the basis of these statements, while it might be very foolish to buy goods upon them. I will now give you the tables. Product for 300 days, 4 skeins per day of No. 20 yarn. The above statement of consumption of cotton and pounds. per spindle is from the census; the delivery of cotton from the crop to the mills, as given in the commercial statement, is considerably more, but it will be remembered that there was a heavy stock of cotton carried over by many corporations from 1860 to 1861. There should, however, probably be some allowance made, even from the above figures, for the large consumption of cotton at that time, especially in the South, for mattresses, upholstery, and the like. This other use has been estimated as high as one-eighth the whole consumption at that time. Making a correction of one-eighth in the pounds without altering the yards, and we have 71 pounds per spindle, and an average of about No. 22 yarn, which would prove the return made in the census to be substantially. correct, the average number there given being a trifle finer, and the yards to the pound of goods made about 3. The census statement of yards is as nearly correct as any such figures can be, and the result in yards, with which we are now chiefly concerned, is Total product per head, Export estimated 10 per cent., Home consumption per head, 1875. Population estimated, . Spindles, Cotton consumed, 36.45 3.65 32 yards. 43,500,000 9,539,364 576,742,753 lbs. 13.3 lbs. per head. 601 Pounds cotton per spindle per annum, Product of goods, deducting one-sixth for waste, 480,618,961 lbs. Product for 300 days, 4 skeins per day, of No. 26 yarn. Product per head of population-Printing-cloths, Other goods, 1,785,000,000 17.21 23.82 41.03 3.75 41.03 1.23 39.80 This statement again should be corrected in some measure as to the pounds per spindle, but there is not as much use of cotton in upholstery or for other purposes as in 1860. It may be assumed that a fair correction would give 56 pounds per spindle, the average number of about 28, and the yards to the pound of cloth about four; the yards produced remaining the same. In these computations, I have taken no cognizance of the production of batting, wadding, twine and bags, these articles being chiefly made from waste. The substantial question is, Is the production of cotton fabric less in 1876, in proportion to the population, than in 1859 and 1860? According to the data submitted, there were produced,In 1860: Printing-cloths all consumed at home, per head, |