The President: Have we got any benefit out of [less than 1 line not declassified] Roberto? Mr. Colby: Some. Mobutu knows about our relationship. Secretary Kissinger: There is need for money to increase the discipline of his organizations. The agency has weapons that it could get [less than 1 line not declassified] into Zaire to control the situation with Mobutu as the front man. I am not against diplomacy, but you can do that only if you know where you go if you fail. To launch a campaign against arms supply and not know where you're going afterward is an impotent policy. We would be the first victims of failure. The President: Is there a specific proposal from the group on grants in the arms area? I don't want to make a decision now, but I didn't see any proposals in the briefing papers. Secretary Kissinger: The Forty Committee has met twice to discuss the situation. The first meeting involved only money, but the second included some arms package. I recommend a working group make a more systematic study of this option and return to you. Mr. Colby: [1 line not declassified] give Mobutu money for the purchase of arms; [less than 1 line not declassified] Mr. Clements: [less than 1 line not declassified] The President: [less than 1 line not declassified] Mr. Colby: [2 lines not declassified] Secretary Kissinger: [less than 1 line not declassified] The President: Is it CIA's recommendation that the effort of doing something is worth it? Mr. Colby: There is great value to aiding Roberto through Mobutu. The first is the effect on Angola, and the effect on Mobutu himself. Assistance to Savimbi could come in cooperation with Kaunda. The President: At dinner he was very forceful on this. He said that it was important to get his man in first, and then he will win the election. I asked him if there were not going to be elections, and he said yes, and that was why it was important to put Savimbi in first and then he would win. Secretary Kissinger: Kaunda was giving the President a lesson in political science. [Laughter.] Mr. Colby: While it would be useful to give assistance, it would be matched by the Soviets and there could be increased fighting and there would be no happy ending. I don't think we can put up a large enough sum to wrap it up quickly, and, with CIA's own present exposure, to get away without a great deal of criticism. The President: We can't sit here and worry about six Committees if we do what's right. Mr. Colby: What I'm worried about is leakage and scandal in the present situation. The President: It seems to me if you're going to do something, you have to do it in a meaningful fashion. Mr. Colby: In answer, I doubt we could have an immediate strategic effect. Secretary Kissinger: But the reverse of that is that if we don't do something they would be suppressed. The President: Once the Popular Movement takes over you can write it off. Secretary Schlesinger: We might wish to encourage the distintegration of Angola. Cabinda in the clutches of Mobutu would mean far greater security of the petroleum resources. Mr. President, may I follow up-if we do something, we must have some confidence that we can win, or we should stay neutral. Roberto is not a strong horse. The fact that he stays in the Congo suggests he doesn't have the tenacity to win. The President: It seems to me that doing nothing is unacceptable. As for diplomatic efforts, it is naive to think that's going to happen, and the proposals on Portugal sound amateurish. I would like some re-study aimed at doing something that looks at the levels of assistance, the speed and the resources. [to Colby]: When could you have that? Mr. Colby: We could have that next week. South Africa would like us to join with them in an effort, but we can avoid the problems that would create and deal with the blacks. Some would be encouraged for the US to take a role, and that would activate them. Mr. Clements: I agree with this. Doing something now and keeping the two parties afloat may well be encouraging Mobutu. Whatever happens in November is not final, and it's important to keep Roberto and Savimbi viable and keep the options open. Give Mobutu some help and let him channel it. Secretary Kissinger: In the first instance we could activate Mobutu and inform Kaunda. The President: He [Kaunda] was talking at dinner about getting together with someone. Who was that? Secretary Kissinger: With Savimbi and Mobutu. The President: Let's get some options prepared, Bill [to Colby]." When can you have them? Mr. Colby: By mid-week. Secretary Schlesinger: Can we look at something other than arms? The FNLA has a weak capacity to enforce discipline and we should look to see whether the Congolese (Zairians) can be used for instilling discipline. And then there's the question of the degree to which we can bring Roberto and Savimbi together. The President: Those are some of the things that have to be in the study. I think we need something for a week from Monday, so let's set something up. Attachment June 27, 1975. ANGOLA I. The current situation in Angola is highly unstable. Rivalry between contending nationalist groups has featured increasing violence, with each group trying to stake out territory and gain military superiority before independence on November 11 and final Portuguese withdrawal by next February. A. The fighting over the past few months has been between the two largest groups, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, led by Agostinho Neto, and the National Front for the Liberation of An "The Central Intelligence Agency suggested four options for assisting Roberto and Savimbi: 1) limited covert financial support for organizational and political activity as well as covert action to stop the flow of weapons to the MPLA; 2) substantial covert financial support and covert action to insure the Roberto and Savimbi groups would be active participants in an independent Angola; 3) a larger financial and matériel commitment, in addition to option 2, to defeat Neto militarily; 4) provide approximately one-third of the arms and supplies needed by Savimbi and Roberto. This option was considered too large scale to be covert. The paper was sent to the NSC on July 2. (Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Kissinger-Scowcroft West Wing Office Files, Box 1, General Subject File, Angola) 7 July 7. 8 Confidential. gola led by Holden Roberto. A third group in the picture is the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, led by Jonas Savimbi. 1. In action early this month Neto's Popular Movement pushed the National Front out of some areas north and east of Luanda, thus blocking the Front's supply lines into the capital. 2. Although there were some clashes in Luanda this month, the two remain essentially in a standoff there. a. Military control of Luanda by either group would necessarily not determine control of or influence over the rest of Angola, particularly in the rich agricultural areas or along all the main transportation routes. 3. Roberto's National Front still remains strongly entrenched in large areas of northern Angola where it has substantial tribal support. B. New fighting can erupt at any time: -There is a continuing buildup of the military forces of all three nationalist groups; -Heavier weapons-mortars and bazookas-are being introduced into Angola by the USSR and Zaire; -Armed and undisciplined civilians are in Luanda on behalf of the Popular Movement; -Neither major group is able or willing to exercise effective control over its own forces; -All three groups are initiating military operations in parts of Angola yet untouched by the fighting where no single group has an edge; and -Politicking for the October elections for a constituent assembly will increase tensions. C. The oil-rich enclave of Cabinda remains a tinderbox. The Popular Movement has a slight military edge there, but both other groups also have forces active. 1. All three want the enclave to remain a part of an independent Angola. 2. The picture is complicated by the presence of a factionalized separatist movement supported by both Zaire and Congo. 3. Both countries have endorsed Cabindan independence, and any intensification of the fighting there could bring outside intervention either directly or in support of the separatists. II. The transitional government installed last January has proved unworkable. A. It is constructed on a system of checks and balances, but in the current climate members of the three liberation groups, as government officials, concentrate on the competition between them. 1. Portuguese officials are not effective-they are caught in the middle. 2. The liberation groups have not honored their commitment to establish an integrated national army as called for in the independence accord. B. The 24,000 Portuguese troops are mostly kept in Luanda. They will intervene in the fighting only to protect the whites. 1. The Portuguese have in effect abandoned most of the countryside to the nationalists, and are already crating some of their heavy equipment for shipment to Lisbon. 2. Portuguese forces are scheduled to begin withdrawal in October and are to be totally removed by next February. 3. There is nothing in the independence accord to prevent the Portuguese from withdrawing as fast as possible after October. C. Lisbon's policy insofar as it has one, is neutrality among the factions. 1. Portugal wants to protect its important agricultural and mining interests. 2. The Portuguese also want to be on good terms with whoever ends up in charge after independence, but their ability to affect events is diminishing. 3. At this point, the Portuguese leaders' major concern is to prevent civil war, which could have serious political repercussions in Lisbon. They hope to avoid, for example, an increase in the number of white refugees returning to Portugal who would add to the turbulence there. 4. Thus, Lisbon can be expected to expend considerable diplomatic effort to reduce tension in Angola, and would certainly welcome similar efforts by interested third countries. III. The role of outside powers in supplying military assistance to the nationalist groups remains a key factor. A. The Soviet Union has been a long time supporter of Neto's Popular Movement, providing both arms and cash during the years of the insurgency against the Portuguese. 1. We are unable to determine how much Soviet military aid is now reaching the Movement, but it helped the Movement score some of its recent gains. 2. Most of the aid is being channeled through Congo. 3. Soviet long-range goals in Angola are unclear, but in the short run Moscow supports the Popular Movement in a situation where all three nationalist groups are viable contenders for power. B. Peking has had some association with all of the liberation movements in the past, but the Chinese are most closely associated with Roberto's National Front. |