An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section 1- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY in the AWIPS delivery schedule necessitate corresponding delays in the planned drawdown of field office staff. We included additional funding in both years. We noted funding for several NWS-wide programs (e.g., GOES-Tap, Cooperative Institute program) was fragmented into different offices with no one office assigned overall responsibility; we consolidated funding for these programs. We discovered instances where funds for a program were allocated to one office, but implementation responsibility was assigned to a different office; we consolidated funding in the implementation office. In FY 1997, NWS streamlined staffing levels allocated to the regional headquarters infrastructure (292 to 235). We saw no evidence to indicate these reduced levels are not adequate. As part of this streamlining, NWS decided to close the Southern Region Headquarters (SRH) and downgrade the Alaska and Pacific Regions. This latter action has been tabled. During our review we noted the NWS Regional Directors had developed a plan to maintain the SRH within the 235 person ceiling. An analysis of this proposal vis-à-vis NWS' showed it to be operationally and managerially superior. From a resource perspective, it is only marginally more expensive. We recommend the Regional Directors' plan be adopted and plans to close the SRH be terminated. We ascertained the field office staffing model used to allocate labor resources in the modernized NWS is reasonable. The model is predicated on AWIPS and its associated productivity tools meeting design specifications. Our analysis indicates NWS development efforts are on track; when the systems are fielded and the subsequent restructuring completed, NWS should be able to meet programmed staffing levels. AWIPS like many large information technology programs has experienced technical difficulties, cost growth and schedule delays. Our review indicates the program is making progress. All field personnel who have used the current software release (Build 3) are complimentary about its utility and functionality. We noted several areas (program management structure and approach, system engineering) that require attention and provided recommendations to improve the overall management of this critical program. Since the required analysis was needed in a comparatively short period of time (less than 90 days), we could not analyze in detail all relevant issues raised by the proposed budgets. Instead, we identified those issues and uncertainties that require more complete analysis and highlight their significance so they can be more fully examined by DOC, NOAA, and NWS. Additionally, we indicate several service activities that should be reviewed to determine if they can be more economically and efficiently provided by other than a government work force. We provided (Section XII) a number of recommendations to improve NOAA and NWS planning, budget analysis and evaluation, program prioritization, cost identification and control, requirements definition and approval, management and decision-making processes. An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section II - OVERVIEW The National Weather Service (NWS) is a component of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) within the Department of Commerce (DOC). NWS' core mission is to provide weather and flood warnings, public and marine forecasts and advisories primarily for the protection of life and property. NWS' operations also support the nation's economic development and aviation safety. In carrying out this mission, NWS operates a variety of systems to collect, process, analyze and disseminate weather information and products to and among its network of field offices, national centers and the American public. NWS offices are located in every state and several territories and its personnel interact daily with the U.S. population. From a resources and employee perspective NWS accounts for 16% of the total DOC annual budget and 13 % of DOC's personnel ceiling. During the 1980's, NWS initiated a program to both modernize and restructure its field operation. The program was designed to simultaneously provide the nation with weather and hydrological products and services and complete required modernization and restructuring activities necessary to realize the benefits and efficiencies of the technologies. The modernization program is designed to skillfully use emerging information and observational technology to improve field operations. The restructuring will consolidate 52 Weather Service Forecast Offices, 204 smaller and less capable Weather Service Offices, 13 River Forecast Centers and 3 National Centers into 119 Weather Forecast Offices (equal and more capable), 13 River Forecast Centers, 13 Data Collection Offices and 9 National Centers. The mutual goals of the Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR) were to: achieve more uniform weather services nationwide, provide more reliable detection and prediction of severe weather and flooding, improve the accuracy, responsiveness and quality of the services and products, improve employee productivity and generate a more costeffective operation. Critical components of the modernization include fielding of the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), the Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-NEXT), the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). The first three systems are in use nation-wide and the last is currently in the final stages of development. The deployment of these new systems, coupled with a better educated and trained NWS work force, has over the past several years resulted in significantly improved weather warnings and forecasts to the public. For example, tornado forecast performance measures (Government Performance and Results Act) reflect a doubling of lead times and a 26% increase in warning accuracy; 24 hour hurricane landfall forecasts show a 25% accuracy improvement. AWIPS is the "central nervous system" of the modernized NWS. It is the information processing, and display system that forecasters and hydrologists will use to integrate, analyze, and fuse the vast amounts of data now available. Additionally, it will be the national communications infrastructure for the forecast offices and centers, serving as a link to each other and the diverse set of product users throughout the nation. AWIPS like many large information technology programs has experienced technical difficulties, cost growth and An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section II - OVERVIEW schedule delays. These problems have resulted in considerable oversight from external agencies and a congressional mandate to complete development and deployment activities within a $550M cap. Senior DOC/NOAA officials indicate any costs above this cap will be absorbed within the NOAA budget. Current schedules project completion of development activities in November 1998 and deployment in July 1999. Coincident with AWIPS development are a series of other important actions to integrate local data with improved product sets from the National Centers, and deploy several forecaster productivity enhancement programs (Interactive Forecast Preparation system, Local Data Acquisition and Dissemination System and the Weather Radio Console Replacement Program with a text to voice capability). These activities are scheduled to be completed during the latter portions of the AWIPS deployment. When these systems are available and tested, NWS will complete (mid-2001) the final stages of the restructuring, resulting in 119 equally capable Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) and 13 River Forecast Centers (RFC). Despite the challenges associated with the development and deployment of the modernized systems and the new productivity enabling tools, the hardest part of the restructuring remains to be accomplished. Effective and efficient use of the new systems and National Center products require a "cultural" change in the way forecasters approach and accomplish (team versus specialized forecaster) their job and in how the public views this more generalist forecaster. The required changes are deep and the embedded culture will not change easily. Strong and consistent leadership at all levels of the NWS, as well as a proactive plan to "sell" new processes and products to NWS employees and external customers, will be necessary. Without these components, it is unlikely cultural changes will occur within the necessary timelines to meet programmed field staff levels. During the past several months serious questions have arisen within the DOC and NOAA concerning the fiscal and people resources required by the NWS to continue to provide regular operations and maintain current modernization program schedules. These concerns resulted in the commissioning of this study to ascertain appropriate resources needed to operate the NWS. An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section III - TASK and SCOPE SECTION III. — TASK and SCOPE Task Determine the Fiscal Year (FY) 1998 and 1999 resources required to operate the National Weather Service as it completes its planned modernization and transitions to a restructured field office alignment. (See Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT) Scope Conduct a sufficient analysis to assess the fiscal resources required to operate the NWS in Fiscal Years 1998 and 1999; identify areas of fiscal uncertainty within the specified budget years as well as those that could impact completion of the programmed modernization and restructuring; and provide recommendations and options to address the uncertainties. Secondary tasks were to analyze the regional headquarters infrastructure to determine the feasibility of plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters, identify issues/uncertainties with the AWIPS program, and examine and comment on programmed office closures and WFO staffing levels. The specified budget years span the planned completion of the modernization and are a way point on the path to a restructured field operation. Within this report “modernization" and "restructuring" are defined as: Modernization denotes deployment and use of the planned technological Restructuring denotes a comprehensive series of actions that enables 119 WFOs to provide the total spectrum of products and services with programmed staff levels. Necessary conditions include adequate and trained staff, availability of a pre-defined set of NCEP gridded products, and operational implementation of several productivity enhancement systems - e.g., Console Replacement System with a text to voice capability, Local Data Acquisition and Dissemination System and Interactive Forecast Preparation system. An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section IV-APPROACH and METHODOLOGY SECTION IV. - APPROACH and METHODOLOGY Approach This report has been developed using the following approach. Zero-based budget information provided by the NWS was assessed to establish a baseline cost determination of existing and projected NWS programs. This assessment considered past spending patterns as well as NWS request levels associated with the following budget elements: The current and planned modernized field office operations. The current and planned NCEP and Regional Headquarters infrastructure and operations. Development and deployment of the new technology systems and associated system evolution plans. • Recurring requirements such as operations and maintenance, research and development, technology refreshment, and training needs. • Program changes due to statutory/regulatory mandates. NWS fiscal requirements were derived using the methodology described below. Of particular interest with respect to each element was whether the President's FY 1998 budget and the FY 1999 OMB Submit provide adequate support, and if not, what resources will be needed. Methodology The methodology employed was tailored to meet the imposed time constraints and consisted of the following elements: A bottom-up analysis of the BASE budget account to determine labor and non-labor costs for headquarters NWS, NCEP, Regional Headquarters and field units. A review and assessment of: Component (capital asset and operations) accounts of modernization budgets with particular attention on operations and maintenance projections for deployed new technology systems, AWIPS development and deployment, and system evolution/technology infusion cost estimates. |