An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section IV - APPROACH and METHODOLOGY Budget documents including FY 1992 through 1996 actuals, FY 1997 expenditure projections and NWS FY 1998 and 1999 proposed budgets including DOC, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Congressional changes thereto. Several University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) reports on the operation of NCEP's Environment Modeling Center, Tropical Prediction Center, Space Environmental Center and the Central Operations Center. Correspondence from interested citizens, trade and professional associations, commercial interests, and federal, state and county officials. NWS planning and programmatic documentation, analysis of FY 1997 streamlining, restructuring and realignment proposals, and provided briefing material. Briefings, meetings, interviews and consultations with: Key DOC and NOAA policy and budget officials. Several Members of Congress and staff members of appropriate Senate and House Key Headquarters, NWS management, policy and budget officials and staff members regarding: current and planned staffing requirements baseline organizational operating costs current programs future plans and requirements operative management, decision making and budget analysis, development and execution processes. All NWS Regional Directors and Director, National Data Buoy Center. Representatives of the National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) and the National Coordinating Council on Emergency Management (NCCEM) as well as with numerous state and county emergency managers (Texas, Florida, Maryland, Ohio etc.) Members of the NWS Modernization Transition Committee and the National Research Council's NWS Modernization Committee, as well as with officials of several professional meteorological associations. President and several shop stewards of the NWS Employee Union. An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section IV-APPROACH and METHODOLOGY Representatives of the private weather industry. Government officials in various agencies that use NWS products and services (e.g., Key policy, contract and acquisition officials of NOAA System Acquisition Office. Members of the GAO's Information Resources Management staff. Visits to: All mainland Regional headquarters. Several Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers. All NCEP (except for Storm Prediction Center) Product centers as well as the An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section V - CONSTRAINTS and ASSUMPTIONS SECTION V. CONSTRAINTS and ASSUMPTIONS This report has been governed by a prescribed set of constraints; and several assumptions governed cost determinations. Constraints The following constraints regarding the baseline for NWS modernization and service levels were followed: ⚫ FY 1996 current level of services and products, adjusted for permanent changes made as part of the FY 1997 budget, will continue in FY 1998-1999 • NWS modernization plan will be pursued and completed as currently defined and scheduled in the National Implementation Plan The staffing plan will be implemented as defined in the Human Resources Plan, adjusted for National Performance Review decisions, current AWIPS deployment schedules and NWS FY 1997 streamlining actions. • Guidance for addressing the FY 1997 budget must be followed in the FY 1998-1999 budgets i.e., there shall be no direct impact on warning programs, no reductions to modernization systems and schedules, and no permanent staffing reductions in weather forecast offices and river forecast centers. Assumptions The following assumptions governed cost determinations: • FY 1998 and 1999 pay raises of 2.8% and FY 1998 locality pay as specified by OPM were applied. A non-labor inflation factor of 1.7% was applied. AWIPS development and deployment schedule approved by Secretary of Commerce in February 1997 is maintained. Procedures contained in the NWS Modernization Act (PL 102-567) pertaining to station closures will not be streamlined; no fiscal savings will be realized. NOAA Common Services charges were assumed to equal $35.3 million in FY 1998 and $35.4 million in FY 1999; permanent transfers to equal $0.7 million in FY 1998/1999; and non-discretionary fees for services to equal $1.3 million in FY 1998/1999. An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section VI - FTE and LABOR COST ANALYSIS SECTION VI. - FTE and LABOR COST ANALYSIS The following sections analyze and discuss the FYS 1998 and 1999 labor and non-labor costs required to operate and modernize the NWS. Proposed NWS budgets for both fiscal years are detailed in Appendix B - RECOMMENDED BUDGET for FYs 1998 and 1999. Introduction The NWS budget structure is complex with fiscal resources budgeted, appropriated and expended in multiple accounts; a BASE account and five modernization accounts. The BASE budget account encompass normal operating costs for operations, research, and facilities and essentially represents the pre-Modernization and Restructuring (MAR) level of resources. The modernization systems budgets are found in both Operations and Research and Capital Assets Acquisition Appropriations. NEXRAD, ASOS and AWIPS accounts encompass resources to develop and deploy new systems and computers, funding for program management, system evolution activities, and operations and maintenance costs. The Capital Assets Account also identifies resources to build/lease new NCEP and WFO facilities. In FY 1998, NOAA moved WFO Facility Maintenance to the Operations, Research and Facilities budget. The Modernization and Restructuring Demonstration Initiative (MARDI) account encompass incremental costs above BASE to implement the MAR, and when completed, the additive costs (above pre-MAR BASE) to operate the modernized NWS (e.g., O&M, salary). Within the modernization accounts, budget categories are clearly defined and activities identified and costed. Fiscal resources in the FY 1998 President's Budget (PB) and the FY 1999 OMB Submit were discernible and our analysis involved evaluating the reasonableness of the activity, its associated cost, and making appropriate adjustments. This was not the case with the BASE account. Traditionally, NWS, like many government agencies, does not apportion BASE dollars into component parts and activities. Thus, identifying what activities and categories are included and how labor and non-labor costs were allocated within the FY 1998 and 1999 budgets was impossible. In FY 1997 NWS did initiate a study to build a zero-base budget (ZBB) to account for BASE activities. While this study is still somewhat dynamic and in the development phase, we did consider it. The ZBB intermingled activities funded in the FY 1998 PB with unfunded needs and did not distinguish between either. This made our analysis difficult, as we had no clear baseline as to what was in the FY 1998 PB. We reviewed the entire NWS operation, including prior year actual costs for recurring activities and desired changes and initiatives to determine appropriate resource levels. Results of these analyses were then compared to the NWS ZBB. Where possible we also compared projected costs to relevant industry and government bench-marks. 48-356 99-26 An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section VI - FTE and LABOR COST ANALYSIS A.-Labor (Staffing) Requirements The data and analyses presented in the following sections represents the total NW'S labor requirement regardless of budget account. Regarding FTE levels in the FY 1998 PB and FY 1999 OMB Submit, we were only able to ascertain the total number of FTEs NWS-wide. In constructing overall FY 1998 and 1999 budgets (Appendix B), reimbursable costs were accounted for and labor costs reflected in appropriate budget accounts. 1. National Weather Service Headquarters and Central Operations In FY 1997, NWS, pursuant to congressional direction, streamlined and reduced headquarters staffing levels by 153 positions. Prior to FY 1997, policy (and associated program management and oversight) and service provider functions were intermeshed within the Headquarters organization. As part of the streamlining action, NWS attempted to separate and realign policy from service providing activities. This resulted in the creation of a headquarters level Office of System Management and the establishment of the Centers for Communications, Radar and Logistics. This approach has merit and should help focus the headquarters staff on those functions which are appropriate for a government line office. While the initial NWS plan is good, our analysis indicates the headquarters organization still blurs the policy/service distinction; we believe the Technique Development Laboratory and the Hydrology Research Laboratory are service functions and should fall within the purview of Central Operations or NCEP. Accordingly, in the following organizational and labor charts (Table 1 Headquarters & Central Operations Staffing) we treat these activities as non-headquarters functions. While the past headquarters reductions were significant, we believe with prioritizing of tasks and implementing more efficient staff coordination and decision-making processes, the staff should be able to handle the workload. NWS, in a series of briefings in August 1997, stated requirements for 841 FTEs within Headquarters and Central Operations. We used this information as a requirements baseline. With minor adjustments, the proposed allocations of FTEs appear reasonable. We reduced the Associate Administrator's office by 6 (3 in Federal Coordinator's Office and 3 unassigned FTEs), National Reconditioning Center by 4 (reduced number of FTEs in Quality Control Division, as percentage of the work force assigned to QC functions appeared excessive) and the National Data Buoy Center by 2 (1 manager and 1 administrative support position as supervisor/employee and administrative support/employee ratios appear excessive). These changes reduce the HQ/Central Operations staffing requirements from 841 to 829. |