An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Section XII - CONCLUSIONS and RECOMMENDATIONS

• Identify a lead AWIPS system engineer now and give the individual sufficient authority and responsibility to accomplish necessary actions. Assistance via non-government agencies should be provided (e.g., contractor or FFRDC) to the selected individual. LDAD and security issues should be addressed as top priority items.

· Review AWIPS projected software maintenance for reasonableness and adequacy.

Review both the AWIPS and N-AWIPS software to evaluate the extent of commonality and the long term feasibility and costs of using the GEMPAK software. 5.- Other Areas

Increase efforts to publicize availability of maintenance dollars to cover expansion of the NOAA Weather Radio transmitter network. NWS has funds available to cover transmitter O&M costs associated with the new systems implemented as a result of the "Gore" initiative. For some reason, regional staffs, WFOs and emergency managers are unaware that these centrally managed funds are available for their use.

• Address and ascertain what is the appropriate mix of NWS and "soft money" funding to support EMC and NCEP operations.

Determine the most cost efficient method to satisfy the field's total data requirements in the AWIPS-era. Strive to consolidate the Regional Wide Area Network within the AWIPS Communications Network.

Review end-state staffing levels at the Jackson, KY and Guam WFOs; if necessary adjust programmed staffing levels.

An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service

APPENDICES

SECTION XIII. — APPENDICES

Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT.

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Appendix B - RECOMMENDED BUDGET for FYs 1998 and 1999

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Appendix C - ANALYSIS of NOAA/NWS LABOR MODEL.

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Appendix D - CONTACTS..

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Appendix E - ACRONYMS...

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An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT

Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT

Report /Mission:

In the next few months, NOAA and the Department of Commerce will need to determine the level of resources needed to operate the modernized National Weather Service (NWS). This report is required in a short time frame to assist NOAA and the Department in making resource allocation decisions for the FY 1998 NWS operating plan. NOAA and the Department of Commerce will need to understand the programmatic impact of the FY 1998 conference allocation for the National Weather Service and determine if additional resources are required to meet the criteria defined in the assumptions. In addition, resource information is needed for the FY 1999 Departmental budget request to Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to ensure that the criteria defined in the assumptions can be supported.

Recognizing that this time frame is short, we are requesting that the report contain sufficient analysis to determine the necessary resources, or indicate major areas of uncertainty and provide proposals on how to address those issues, consistent with the criteria defined in the assumptions. General Kelly is requested to provide an analysis and recommendations distinguishing between issues which need to resolved in the short term (e.g., FY 1998) and those which are longer term (e.g., FY 1999 and beyond).

In particular, General Kelly should provide an assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions) and NWS closure plans. He also is requested to analyze the operational regional infrastructure of the NWS as it affects the cost of delivery of services, with specific focus on the NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters.

Approach:

General Kelly will receive briefings as well as other requested information from NWS and other relevant parties (see Assumptions section). In addition, it is expected that General Kelly will meet with users of NWS products and services to include government and non-government groups and other interested parties such as state emergency managers, commercial weather service providers, and the National Research Council's NWS Modernization Committee, to discuss parameters which would affect the cost of weather service operations, such as timeliness, accuracy, responsiveness, communication and others.

General Kelly should assess the zero-based budget review information which will be provided by the NWS to establish a baseline cost determination of the existing programs. This assessment should consider the costs associated with:

the current and projected staffing plan; (and, in particular, whether the FY 1998 President's budget is adequate to support this; and what resources are needed in FY 1999);

An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT

the current and planned modernized field office operations;

the current and planned modernized weather office infrastructure, including the regional headquarters; and

recurring requirements such as operations and maintenance, research and development, technology refreshment, service and product improvement, and training needs.

Outside Experts:

We recommend that General Kelly contact the following people as soon as possible to develop a work plan which would take advantage of their expertise. In parallel, we will contact them to discuss the specific arrangements necessary to provide for their participation in this effort. One possible work plan and personnel assignment could be built upon the following:

Good - technology infusion - plans for both phasing and level of resources

Dutton – identify a priority list of issues which are important to the academic community McMillion identify a priority list of concerns with respect to weather services and emergency manager needs;

Dorman - review the cost of planned service and product improvements

Kaehn - assist in the evaluation of the NWS regional infrastructure, specifically focusing on NWS plans to accelerate the closure of the Southern Region Headquarters; and provide an assessment of issues associated with AWIPS functionality and staffing levels (including reductions)/NWS closure plans

NOAA Support:

NOAA will provide access to all information that is required to conduct this assessment, including briefing materials, budget and cost information, GAO and IG reports, staffing and modernization plans, and all other relevant documentation. NOAA will ensure that appropriate NOAA staff are made available to General Kelly for his support, including administrative and clerical, budget, technical and program management. Specific NOAA individuals that General Kelly has identified are being contacted to ascertain their availability.

NOAA will also arrange access to other appropriate government and non-government officials. We anticipate that briefings to Congressional staff will be necessary and NOAA will make the necessary arrangements for these meetings.

Office space in NOAA facilities in Silver Spring has been made available. NOAA will also pay for authorized travel, phones, fax, computer and other required support. NOAA will

An Assessment of the Fiscal Requirements to Operate the Modernized National Weather Service Appendix A - NOAA TASK STATEMENT

make appropriate arrangements to acquire additional support from contractors for budget or technical analysis expertise, if required.

Assumptions:

For purposes of preparing this report, General Kelly should base his analysis and recommendations or options on the following assumptions regarding the baseline for NWS modernization and service levels (detailed briefings will be provided to him on this):

FY 1996 current level of services and products, adjusted for permanent changes made as part of the FY 1997 budget shortfall, will continue in FY 1998-1999;

NWS modernization plan will be pursued and completed as currently defined and scheduled in he National Implementation Plan;

Staffing plan will be implemented as defined in the Human Resources staffing plan, adjusted for actions undertake in FY 1997 as part of the NWS streamlining plan;

NWS budget profiles defined in the President's FY 1998 budget request and run-outs, adjusted for Congressional actions;

Guidance established to address the FY 1997 budget situation can continue to be supported in FY 1998-1999. The guidance for FY 1997 is: (1) no direct impact on warning programs; (2) no reductions to modernization systems and schedules; and (3) no permanent staffing reductions in weather forecast offices and river forecast centers.

Deliverable and Time Frame:

A report is request that will contain an assessment of the fiscal resources necessary to operate the modernized weather service, as defined in the National Implementation Plan, focusing on resource requirements for FY 1998 and FY 1999. The report should identify major cost uncertainties associated with the end state of modernization and provide recommendations and/or options on how to proceed with addressing these issues. The report will be due to the Under Secretary and the Secretary of Commerce 60-days from General Kelly's entry-on-duty (EOD) as a limited term SES appointment which will run for 90 days.