« PreviousContinue »
Mr. Irwin: Is this our radar or theirs? I thought it was their radar screen, to which we tie in.
Mr. Packard: It's theirs but we get a potential take from it.
Adm. Moorer: We get an indication of the level of activity of Chinese forces.
Mr. Noyes: The Air Force gets a take on Chinese Air Force movements.
Mr. Irwin: But it's primarily to warn India of attack.
Mr. Packard: I think we should get a decision either to stop everything not licensed or to stop everything in the pipeline, and then we can work out the details.
Dr. Kissinger: That's right. We can't ask the President to decide each little detail.
Mr. Sisco: Yes, but we need to be as clear as possible as to exactly what the action applies to and what are the implications. I learned my lesson from the Pakistan pipeline exercise, where it developed we just couldn't be sure where the stuff was.
Mr. Packard: If we stop everything in the pipeline, there are significant items—the C-119s spares, the radar equipment, the road work in Nepal. If we just stop all new licenses it will be less significant.
Dr. Kissinger: But all the key items are in the new category, aren't they?
Mr. Irwin: The more important ones.
Mr. Van Hollen: The $4 million for C-119 spares is in the new license category.
Dr. Kissinger: What is in the licensed category?
Mr. Sisco: About $5 million in aircraft spares, radar jamming equipment, cartridge cases and cartridge case manufacturing equipment.
Mr. Packard: $22 million worth of licenses were issued in the last year. That's an awful lot of stuff.
Dr. Kissinger: I don't think the President can get into all this. Would it be proper to use the State Department paper as the basis for putting the question to the President. [1 line of source text not declassified]
Gen. Cushman: [less than 1 line of source text not declassified]
Dr. Kissinger: We'll put this in a memo to the President and get a decision tomorrow. My understanding from Secretary Rogers is
o Summarized in footnote 6, Document 198.
that he has agreed to the cut-off but would like to wait a day or two. The present idea is that State would make the announcement on Wednesday.10
Mr. Irwin: The Secretary thinks we should cut off military assistance-he thinks we should cut off both new licenses and the pipeline. But he wants to wait until we see Kosygin's reply and also what, if anything, happens at the UN. Yahya has asked his UN Ambassador to ask for UN observers on his side of the border and this might lead to a Security Council meeting.
Dr. Kissinger: Does he think we should not cut off military assistance if the matter goes to the Security Council?
Mr. Irwin: Not necessarily. He thinks we should go ahead, subject to a last look.
Dr. Kissinger: We'll take another look at the situation tomorrow and will plan to go ahead on Wednesday. We'll give the President the choice between the two options for a cut-off, (less than 1 line of source text not declassified). I'm sure the President and the Secretary will be talking on the phone about it over the next day or two.
Mr. Sisco: We have given you a draft press statement on the limited option of new licenses. We will prepare another draft press statement on an across-the-board cut.
Dr. Kissinger: I thought the papers we got over the weekend were damned good.
Adm. Moorer: Timing is important. India has invaded Pakistan, which gives you a good basis for a cut-off of military assistance. If we wait until the Pakistanis retaliate, we'll hear the same argument for a cut-off to them.
Dr. Kissinger: We're planning for a release Wednesday noon. Let's defer the discussion of an economic aid cut-off for the moment. That's further down the line. Can we talk about the UN? Joe (Sisco), would you like to summarize the State paper?14
Sent to the White House as an attachment to the memorandum summarized in footnote 6, Document 198.
Not further identified. Papers received by the White House over the weekend of November 27-28 apparently included the memorandum referenced in footnote 14 below, as well as a November 27 memorandum from Eliot to Kissinger that refined the licensed and unlicensed military supplies scheduled to go to India. (National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H-083, Senior WSAG Meeting, South Asia, 11/29/71)
Reference is to a November 27 memorandum from Eliot to Kissinger that dealt with the possibility of recourse to the UN Security Council on the confrontation between
Mr. Sisco: The paper is self-explanatory. We understand that the Paks by the end of the day will have told U Thant that they are willing to accept UN observers on their side of the border. They have done this on their own. I don't know to what degree they have thought this through. They probably think they can achieve their purpose by informal means without a Security Council meeting. I personally think the Secretary General will say he wants to refer the matter to the Security Council, but this will be clearer tomorrow. Recourse to the Security Council has one great advantage for the Paks and one great risk. The advantage is that the Security Council will focus on some provisions to deter broader military action. However, Indian strategy will be to block those elements which undermine their policy of military pressure and try to move the SC to express itself on political accommodation. Our draft resolution has four elements: 1) withdrawal of foreign forces; 2) a ceasefire; 3) a call on both sides to do everything possible to get the refugees back; and 4) a call on the parties to avail themselves of the good offices of the Secretary General. We think we can probably get the required nine votes for such a resolution. However, all the SC members, including our friends, will be under great pressure to support a concrete provision in the direction of political accommodation. That would be part of the quid pro quo. I have one modification of our paper. We say on page 3 (reading): "In our judgment, there will be strong efforts by the Soviets to delete the withdrawal paragraph, soften the ceasefire paragraph, and to call upon Pakistan to take concrete steps for a political solution. India, with as much support as she can get will go further: she will seek as a quid pro quo for withdrawal and a ceasefire as categoric a Security Council provision as possible calling for negotiations between Yahya and Mujib. Such a paragraph could get majority support in the Council since even some of our closest friends ... would be very sympathetic to it. In short, the thrust of the Council will be a cool-off of the military activity in exchange for getting Yahya-Mujib negotiations started.
On reflection, I think that with a maximum U.S. effort we can influence the provision on political accommodation to be less precise than an out-right call on Yahya and Mujib to negotiate. It's hard to say how much less we could get, but I think we could get a provision that didn't go that far. .
India and Pakistan. Attached to the memorandum was the draft resolution summarized by Sisco. The memorandum weighed the prospects that such a resolution would be adopted, noting that the Soviet Union might veto it on India's behalf. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Files 1970–73, POL 27 INDIA-PAK)
Mr. Kissinger: Who will sit in for Russia? For China?
Mr. Sisco: Malik for Russia and Huang-Hua, the Chinese Permanent Representative.
Mr. Kissinger: So it's round two. The Chinese have a real ability to get under the Russians' skin.
Mr. Sisco: Yes and in acrimonious terms. Malik has a shorter fuse than most Russians.
(Mr. Kissinger was called from the room.)
Mr. Sisco: We have a very preliminary draft of a speech that Ambassador Bush might make which we will circulate for comment. (Handed copies of the speech attached at Tab B15 around the table.)
(Mr. Kissinger returned.)
Mr. Kissinger: On the UN, we will look over the speech. We will not take the initiative for a meeting or encourage anyone else to take the initiative. If it goes into the Security Council, we will move in the direction of the draft resolution and of the draft speech, as commented on.
Mr. Sisco: If the Pakistani Ambassador raises the issue of going into the SC with me when I see him this afternoon, I will say that this is a decision for them to make. I will take no initiative, but if he asks me a question I will try to answer.
Mr. Irwin: The Paks may have already started the process by their request for observers.
Mr. Kissinger: We will meet within the next forty-eight hours to tie up the military assistance question. Then we should have a session on economic assistance.
Mr. Irwin: One argument for delaying a decision on the timing of the cutoff until we know about the UN is that a bilateral U.S. cutoff might not be necessary if an adequate solution can be worked out in the Security Council.
Mr. Kissinger: If the issue goes to the Security Council before Wednesday noon, this would certainly be considered.
15 Attached but not printed.
210. Backchannel Message From the Ambassador to Pakistan
(Farland) to the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger)
Islamabad, November 30, 1971, 1838Z.
(number not declassified] We have no information here to suggest that a Pakistani attack on Kashmir is imminent or under active consideration, although some contingency plan to that effect surely exists. Yahya continues to assure me that he does not wish war, nor does he intend to start it here. He has so far held sway over his hawks, although how much longer he can do so in the face of continued Indian incursions into East Pakistan is most uncertain. Pakistanis are in a state of readiness and if they do finally conclude they must fight in the West as well as in the East, Kashmir is an emotionally attractive target, although we have generally thought that they would go for the more easily penetrated areas further south. Will advise you immediately if
. anything changes this view. Best regards.
Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 426, Backchannel Files, Backchannel Messages, 1971, Amb. Farland, Pakistan. Secret. Received at 2028Z.
Farland was responding to a backchannel message sent to him by Kissinger at 1649Z on November 30 in which Kissinger asked him to comment on reports that Pakistan might be considering an attack on Indian forces in Kashmir in order to relieve pressure upon East Pakistan. (White House telegram WH 11052; ibid.)
211. Memorandum From the President's Assistant for National
Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon
Washington, December 1, 1971.
Your Message to Mrs. Gandhi?
Source: Library of Congress, Manuscript Division, Kissinger Papers, Geopolitical File, Box CL 210, South Asia, Chron File, Nov-Dec 1971. Secret; Nodis. Sent for information. A stamp on the memorandum indicates the President saw it.
2 See Document 205.