our Indian Empire, against which the best preservative is a fixed frontier between Russia and Afghanistan under the protectorate of England.

I had full confidence in the pacific disposition of the Emperor Alexander II., and in his sincere wish that no events in regard to Central Asia should disturb his relations with England. But Sovereigns disappear like other mortals, and who can answer for the future? A saying has been reported, by Count Ségur, of a distinguished French Marshal: *Le hasard a presque toujours plus d'influence sur notre sort que nos calculs et nos penchants. Je me rappelle que l'un des hommes les plus connus pour avoir cherché toute sa vie à fixer la fortune par de profondes et savantes combinaisons, le Maréchal de Castries, à l'époque ou comme aide-de-camp je l'ai suivi en Bretagne, me dit, que pendant tout le cours de sa brillante carrière, les caprices du sort avaient souvent déjoué ses plus vastes calculs qu'il avait dû la plupart de ses succés et l'accomplissement des vœux de son ambition à des chances imprévues à des événements qu'il aurait été impossible de déviner, et quelque fois ajoutait il, en riant, à des fautes."

*Memoirs of Comte de Ségur.

CHAPTER VI.

Disquietude in Central Asia-Deposition of Khan of Kokand-Its Final Annexation by Russia-Conversation with M. Stremooukoff on Turcomans-The Porte and Danubian Principalities-Offer of a Burmese Mission to visit St. Petersburg Civilly Declined-Recognition of King Alfonso of Spain -Reception of Diplomatic Corps by the Emperor on 1st JanuaryDifferences Between the Porte and Montenegro-Letter to Lord DerbyGeneral Le Flo-On Montenegrin Question-Russian Sympathies towards France-Special Mission of M. de Radowitz-Illness of M. de Westmann -Interview with Prince Gortschakoff-Conversation with Count Schouvaloff -Pacific Assurances of Emperor William and Prince Bismarck-Insurrection in Herzegovina and Bosnia-Count Andrassy Charged with Drawing up Proposals to the Porte-Insurgents Demand European Guarantees for Execution of Reforms before Submission-Increasing Russian Sympathy for Christian Populations in Turkey-No Progress towards a SolutionBaron Jomini's Opinions-Further Action Postponed till the Emperor and Prince Gortschakoff Return.

It would be impossible, within the scope of this work, to refer at any length to the many political questions which came under my notice during 1874-5, the details of which, however important in many respects, would not have any special interest for my readers. I will, therefore, only give a short analysis of the most important of them.

There was in general much disquietude in Central Asia; disturbances at Khiva; continual friction with the Turcomans; distrust of the Emir of Kashgar, and a marked susceptibility on the part of the Russian Government in regard to the action of the Indian Government. The policy of the Russian Government

in all these questions resembled a shifting quicksand, constantly changing, and fluctuating according as the divergent influences of the civil and military parties were in the ascendant.

Disturbances of a serious nature took place in Kokand, caused by the despotic and cruel rule of the Khan, which finally forced his subjects into open revolt, and led to his deposition.

The Khan was informed that it was the sincere wish of the Emperor not to annex Kokand, and that the Imperial Government would endeavour to avoid taking any such measure; but that, on the other hand, if the misgovernment and cruelties practised hitherto should continue, and should a fresh insurrection result, the intervention of Russia would become necessary, and that in such event the Imperial Government would give their support to any successor who would offer the likelihood of being able to establish an orderly and peaceful Government. The Imperial Government could not permit anarchy and confusion to exist on the borders of their own possessions.

As was to be foreseen by a gradation of political stages, the Russian Government finally proceeded to annex Kokand, and to incorporate it into the Russian Empire, under the denomination of the Province of Ferghana.

In conversation with M. Stremooukoff in regard to the Turcomans, he said that it was hopeless to think of any plan to change their nomadic life-they were children of the desert, and would remain so-but that the

Government were trying to induce them by payment to abstain from pillage, and to employ them for the protection of the caravans and trade.

It was evident that the Imperial Government had decided gradually to absorb and annex the whole Steppe, comprising the district between the Oxus and the Caspian, and between Khiva and the Persian frontier.

There was a question, which gave rise to much correspondence, as to the right of the Danubian Principalities to conclude commercial treaties with foreign States. On this question, and others analogous to it, the Porte, in my opinion, evinced little prudence and foresight.

The "Suzerainté" of the Porte was more nominal than real. The slender thread connecting the Principalities with the Porte had been so strained of late, that on the least tension it was certain to break.

By voluntarily ceding to the Principalities these trivial rights of "Suzerainté" which could no longer be exercised, since the Principalities had acquired from Europe their autonomy, the Porte would have gained their goodwill, and would have strengthened their attachment to the Suzerain Power, looking to it in the future as their defender and protector.

But the Porte continued its action of "non possumus," and the result was that within a short time Roumania and Servia were erected into independent monarchies and completely severed from Turkey.

These provinces, for years past, had been a burden

on the Porte; they were a constant source of trouble and expense to the Turkish Government, without any compensation. They were the branches which it would have been wise for the Porte to have cut off, to give more life and vitality to the trunk. But the Porte fell a victim to its obstinacy and imprudence.

A rather curious fact was mentioned to me by M. de Westmann-namely, the presence of a Burmese mission which had arrived at Teheran, and of their wish to proceed to St. Petersburg. A proposal to this effect had been submitted to the Emperor, who replied to M. de Westmann that, as there were no direct interests between Russia and Burmah, and as the presence of a Burmese Envoy might give rise to suspicion on the part of England, he thought it was desirable to decline as civilly as possible the proposed visit.

Inquiries were addressed at this time by the Courts of Europe, as to the course which the Imperial Government would take in regard to the recognition of Prince Alfonso as King of Spain. Prince Gortschakoff replied that the Emperor had viewed with satisfaction the "révivement Monarchique" in Spain, and would be happy to recognise Prince Alfonso as soon as he had been accepted by the nation, and when his accession to the throne had been officially notified to His Imperial Majesty.

Prince Gortschakoff observed to me that Prince Alfonso had two circumstances in his favour. 1. He had not been mixed up or compromised in the events of