LUDWIG NOBEL A REMARKABLE MAN.

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fortunes are of slow growth, and are the outcome, as it were, of a man's whole existence. This cannot be said of the fortune Ludwig Nobel has realized from Baku petroleum. Up to 1874 he had never taken the slightest interest in the product; until 1879 the attention he gave was only of a casual and intermittent character; and when at length he took in hand the organization of the industry, ninety-nine out of a hundred people would have said that the development of the petroleum trade was more the task for a city man, a clever financier, than for an engineer whose life had been spent amidst machinery. Yet it was the engineer, and not the trader, who was destined to reap in five or six years such a fortune from oil that the most covetous or sanguine merchant might be elated with.

CHAPTER XVIII.

THE FUTURE OF THE CASPIAN PETROLEUM TRADE.

Repeated Crises of Late Years at Baku-Their Cause--Production of Russian Refined Petroleum by Nobel Brothers and Other Firms-Russia Beginning to Push the Petroleum Industry-New Combinations on the Volga-Statistics of the Import of American Oil into Russia-The Russian Petroleum Trade and the Markets of Germany and Austria-Prospects of Rivalry with America-Projected Railways to Transport the Oil to Europe-Petroleum Traffic on the Transcaucasian Railway in 1883-Export from Batoum and Poti-Progress of the Various Branches of the Trade-New Markets in Southern Europe and the East that may be Expected to Fall to Russia Once the Batoum Route is Developed— The Cheaper the Oil the Larger the Consumption-English Enterprise of the Past and the Present-Whether we participate or not the Baku Petroleum Region is sure to be developed.

THE success of Nobel Brothers has not been unmarked with suffering on the part of other interests at Baku. There are always two aspects to a victory-the radiant triumph of the conquerors, and the groans and grief of the vanquished. The success of George Stephenson's locomotive meant ruin to hundreds interested in stagecoaches, and in a like manner the improved methods. introduced by the Swedes have reacted adversely upon the fortunes of those wedded to old ways. Thus, the introduction of the pipe-lines at Baku caused the collapse of hundreds of carriers who conveyed the oil in barrels from the wells to the refineries. When cistern-steamers were introduced many coopers at Baku found the demand for barrels gone, and with it a very lucrative business. Before the petroleum fleet reached its present proportions Nobel Brothers gave handsome freights for the carriage of oil products to the Volga. This led to over speculation in the construction of oil schooners, and when the steamers arrived the former were left anchoring idle at Baku, their occupation gone The

RECENT CRISES AT BAKU.

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success of the Nobels in boring for oil also, accompanied with a succession of extraordinary spouting wells, brought down the price of crude petroleum to a few pence a ton, and reduced to insignificant proportions the income of those who had lived exclusively upon the money realized from the sale of the produce of the wells. Worse than all, however, was the crushing competition which the 200 other refiners experienced at the hands of the Nobels. The cheap transport of the Swedes brought down prices everywhere in Russia, while the 200 firms. having no organized transport of their own, and having to rely upon the careless, shiftless, exacting railway and steamboat companies, could not possibly deliver oil at a price that would enable them to compete with the Nobels. It is true that after a while they bought steamers of their own, but in the meantime they had lost their hold upon the market. Besides, Nobel Brothers not only delivered oil cheaply, but the quality was unfailingly good, and improved every year, while the supplies of less organized and scrupulous firms could not be relied upon. The subjoined table of the production of Russian refined petroleum during the last twelve years will show how severely the battle has gone against the non-Nobel Baku firms.

PRODUCTION OF RUSSIAN REFINED PETROLEUM.

Thus in a few short years Nobel Brothers' production has progressed until it has completely surpassed that of the 200 other oil refiners at Baku put together. By further additions to their refinery they have rendered themselves able to turn out this year 232,000 tons of refined oil, or nearly enough to supply the whole Russian market. All this will explain why for several years past there have been several so-called crises in the Baku petroleum trade, and a considerable amount of outcry at times about the industry going to the dogs. As I have already pointed out, the industry, generally speaking, has been prosperous and progressive enough, but this improvement has been mainly due to the enterprising Swedes, whose rapid and unprecedented success has been the innocent cause of stagnation, arrested growth, and even ruin in individual cases. There has been nothing whatever during this period to warrant any pessimist views with regard to the general future of Baku petroleum. Baku contains enough oil to supply the whole world. The markets of that world lie open to it, and the success of Nobel Brothers in the limited sphere of Russia is a sufficient demonstration of what may be done by other foreign capitalists in the hundreds of other markets in Europe, Africa, and the East.

Already Russia herself is beginning to participate in the extension of the enterprise. The Caucasus and Mercury Company is arranging for the conversion of old steamers to oil-carrying purposes, and the construction of new ones, with a sufficient aggregate capacity to convey 120,000 tons of oil during the season. The company will build its own reservoirs at Baku, and convey oil of a uniform quality to Tsaritzin. Here a newly-formed Russian company, called the Neft," or "Petroleum," with a capital of £200,000,

IMPORT OF OIL INTO RUSSIA.

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will receive it in reservoirs and convey it in tank-cars to different parts of Russia; the Caucasus and Mercury Company, the "Neft," and the Griazi-Tsaritzin Railway worked a through traffic in oil by a mutual arrangement with each other. This combination will not oppose very serious rivalry to Nobel Brothers, because its rates are high, and the management divided; but it will enable other Baku firms to send oil to Russia under more favourable conditions than hitherto, and probably result in the complete expulsion of the American oil from it.

The following shows the import of American oil into Russia, compared with the growth of the refined petroleum trade from 1871 to 1880, beyond which year no official statistics are forthcoming. It is known, however, that the import of American oil has still further decreased of late years. The figures are in poods, each containing 4 gallons:

Now that Baku kerosine is from 80 to 100 per cent. cheaper than American refined petroleum at St. Petersburg, the latter product can hardly be imported into Russia much longer, especially as it is weighted with a duty of 40 copecks the pood. Besides the new